Nottingham Forest’s rise to prominence in the Premier League this season has sparked comparisons to Leicester City’s historic 2016 triumph. Sitting third in the table with the joint second-best defence and a record of consistent clean sheets, the rejuvenated club is proving to be a force to be reckoned with. But can they truly emulate Leicester’s remarkable achievement
A Rejuvenated Nottingham Forest Defying Expectations
After narrowly avoiding relegation last season, Nottingham Forest’s transformation under Nuno Espirito Santo has been nothing short of spectacular. In December, the manager of the month led Forest to a level of performance that far exceeded expectations for a club that had battled survival just months earlier.
With six consecutive top-flight victories, Nottingham Forest is now on the brink of equalling their club record of seven straight wins, set over a century ago in 1922. A win against Premier League leaders Liverpool could bring them within three points of the top spot—a testament to the team’s resilience and determination. Their success stems from a solid defence, disciplined gameplay, and the resurgence of players like Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White.
Lessons from Leicester’s Miracle Season
The comparisons to Leicester’s 2016 title win are inevitable. Like Leicester, Nottingham Forest began the season as underdogs but quickly established themselves as title contenders with their disciplined and dynamic performances. Leicester’s success relied heavily on the pace of Jamie Vardy, the creativity of Riyad Mahrez, and the energy of N’Golo Kante—a combination that stunned the Premier League.
Nottingham Forest’s squad features similar dynamics. Chris Wood provides a Vardy-esque focal point in attack, with Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga offering width and pace. Meanwhile, Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson control the midfield with tenacity and flair. Despite these similarities, Leicester had the advantage of no European commitments, which allowed them to focus solely on the league. Whether Forest can replicate this feat amidst a more competitive environment remains a critical question.
The Odds and Forest’s Title Ambitions
Despite Nottingham Forest’s stellar form, statistical models like Opta predict a mere 0% chance of them winning the title and only a 0.7% chance of finishing second. These predictions starkly contrast with the belief within the squad. Defender Morato confidently declared, “We are in this fight for the title because we deserve to be.” Even Liverpool manager Arne Slot acknowledged Forest as legitimate competitors in the title race.
Historically, teams that have secured 40 points or more in their first 20 games have rarely finished outside the top four. Forest’s current tally matches Leicester’s at the same stage in 2015-16. However, with the average points needed to win the Premier League since 2000 standing at 89.2, Forest would need to maintain their current momentum for the remainder of the season.
Challenges on the Path to Glory
The road to a Premier League title is fraught with challenges, from maintaining consistent form to managing injuries and squad fatigue.Nottingham Forest’s rise this season has already seen its share of controversies, including refereeing disputes and VAR complaints. Moreover, as they inch closer to the title, the pressure to deliver will only intensify—a sentiment echoed by former Leicester captain Wes Morgan.
The squad’s ability to handle this pressure will determine whether they can turn their dream into reality. Forest has proven their mettle by securing crucial victories and showcasing a balanced team effort. However, with fierce competition from established giants like Liverpool and Manchester City, their quest for Premier League glory will require not just skill but also mental fortitude and a bit of fortune.
Are Nottingham Forest the Premier League’s Best Counter-Attacking Team?
Nottingham Forest have been labeled as one of the Premier League’s most dangerous counter-attacking teams, but a closer look at the statistics reveals a different story. Despite their reputation, Forest’s numbers suggest room for improvement in their breakaway efficiency.
Their 33 fast breaks this season have led to 29 shots but only four goals, a surprisingly low return given the potential of their counter-attacking play. Tottenham leads the league in breakaway goals with 10, while Chelsea, Liverpool, and Wolves have also outperformed Nottingham Forest. Key players like Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi have contributed, but their output remains inconsistent. Elanga, with three goals in his last five games, recorded his first since February just recently, while Hudson-Odoi has managed two goals and two assists.
Nottingham Forest’s 31.9% big chance conversion rate underlines the need for more clinical finishing. Of their 47 big chances, they have converted only 15. While Elanga and Hudson-Odoi have combined to create six big chances, Morgan Gibbs-White has matched this contribution alone, highlighting the need for greater support from the wingers.
A Solid Defense: The Backbone of Forest’s Success
While Nottingham Forest’s attack has shown flashes of brilliance, their defense has been the standout feature of their campaign. The arrival of key defensive reinforcements over the summer, including Nikola Milenkovic and Morato, has bolstered a backline that already featured the impressive Murillo. Together, they have formed one of the Premier League’s tightest defenses.
Nottingham Forest’s defensive unit, including goalkeeper Matz Sels, has been instrumental in their success. Sels, signed in February from Strasbourg, has posted a league-high save percentage of 75.3% among goalkeepers with over 500 minutes played. With only 19 goals conceded in 20 games, Forest ranks among the best defensive sides, behind only Arsenal and Liverpool.
Their defensive stats are remarkable. Nottingham Forest have made a league-best 563 clearances this season, showcasing their ability to soak up pressure. The partnership between Milenkovic and Murillo has drawn comparisons to legendary pairings, with former Forest player Wes Morgan praising their understanding and teamwork.
Countering Liverpool: A Tactical Challenge
Nottingham Forest’s ability to compete with league leaders Liverpool on Tuesday will be a significant test. In their September meeting, Forest claimed a memorable victory at Anfield, thanks to Callum Hudson-Odoi’s goal, despite having just 30% possession and completing less than half the number of passes as Liverpool.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s side employs a mid-block defensive system that thrives on winning the ball back and creating space for counter-attacks. Against Liverpool, they are likely to adopt a similar strategy, with five central midfielders clogging up the middle of the park to limit Liverpool’s attacking options.
Forest’s strength lies in their defensive organization, with an average of 4.1 defenders behind the ball for every shot faced—a league-best statistic. However, Liverpool’s attacking firepower, highlighted by their xG of 44.5 and 35 goals from 85 big chances, will test the resilience of Forest’s backline.
A New Generation of Contenders?
Nottingham Forest’s unexpected rise this season has sparked conversations about their potential to challenge for the Premier League title. With a resolute defense and moments of attacking brilliance, they have defied expectations. However, their low possession rate of 39.4% and struggles in creating high-quality chances highlight the challenges they face in maintaining consistency against elite teams like Liverpool.
For Forest fans, the parallels to the glory days under Brian Clough, who led the team to domestic and European success, are tantalizing. While this squad is navigating uncharted territory, their current position and form suggest they cannot be ruled out as title contenders.
As former captain Wes Morgan remarked, “It’s a tall order, but anything can happen in football.” Whether Forest can sustain their momentum and upset the established order remains to be seen, but their journey this season has already been remarkable.
