Manchester City’s reign at the top of English and European football has been characterized by Pep Guardiola’s revolutionary tactical philosophy. However, the 2024-25 season has exposed cracks in the system, with City struggling for consistency. With 13 defeats in their past 26 matches across all competitions, a midweek humbling in Madrid, and an underdog status against Liverpool, the reigning champions are facing an existential crisis.
While injuries, an ageing squad, and uncharacteristic mistakes contribute to their decline, the root cause appears to be a tactical shift in modern football. Guardiola himself admitted after City’s Champions League loss to Real Madrid: “It doesn’t work like it worked in the past.” The rise of rapid football—marked by aggressive pressing, direct attacking, and fast transitions—has put Guardiola’s possession-based philosophy under immense pressure. The question now is whether City can adapt or if this signals the decline of Guardiola’s footballing ideology.
The Rise of Fast, Direct Football: Is Guardiola’s System Outdated?
For years, Guardiola’s juego de posición (positional play) dominated world football. His tactical philosophy, built on controlled possession, intricate passing sequences, and structured positioning, shaped Manchester City into a relentless winning machine. However, modern football is shifting towards a more direct and fast-paced approach, exposing vulnerabilities in City’s system.
Premier League statistics over the past eight seasons indicate a growing emphasis on rapid transitions and pressing. High turnovers per game have increased from 12.48 in 2017-18 to 16.71 in 2023-24, while passes per defensive action (PPDA) have decreased, reflecting greater pressing intensity. Furthermore, fast breaks and goals from such attacks have nearly tripled in frequency.
Guardiola himself acknowledged this shift, stating, “Modern football is not positional. You have to ride the rhythm.” As teams prioritize quick attacks immediately after winning possession, City’s methodical build-up play has become a liability. Without sufficient defensive stability, their possession-based system is increasingly ineffective against aggressive, high-pressing opponents.
Rodri’s Absence and City’s Midfield Collapse
One of the most significant factors behind City’s struggles is the absence of Rodri, the midfield linchpin who embodies Guardiola’s philosophy. Rodri’s presence ensures control, allowing City to dictate the tempo, recycle possession efficiently, and maintain a structured defensive shape. Without him, City’s midfield has lost its ability to suppress counterattacks and control transitions.
The impact of Rodri’s absence was starkly evident in City’s contrasting performances against Manchester United. In the 2023-24 season, with Rodri in midfield, City dominated possession (73%) and outshot United 27-3 in a comfortable 3-1 victory. However, in the 2024-25 season, without Rodri, City lost 2-1, managing only 55% possession and struggling to impose their usual control.
Rodri’s defensive contributions, including ball recoveries and pressing intensity, are irreplaceable. His replacements, including Ilkay Gundogan and Nico Gonzalez, have failed to replicate his dual role of disrupting opposition attacks and initiating progressive play. This tactical imbalance has left City vulnerable to rapid counterattacks, leading to defensive disarray.
Defensive Vulnerabilities: A Weaker Press and More Errors
A declining press and defensive instability have further exacerbated City’s problems. Guardiola’s philosophy relies on winning the ball high up the pitch to prevent opponents from launching counterattacks. However, City’s pressing intensity has dropped significantly, allowing opposition teams more time to exploit spaces.
The Champions League defeat to Real Madrid highlighted these flaws. Kylian Mbappé’s opener resulted from City’s high defensive line failing to apply pressure, allowing Raul Asencio to exploit the space behind. Similar issues have plagued City in the Premier League, with opponents increasingly finding joy in bypassing City’s weakened press.
Personnel changes have also contributed to City’s defensive struggles. The loss of key defenders like Ruben Dias and Manuel Akanji for stretches of the season has further weakened their defensive resilience. Moreover, Ederson’s increased involvement in launching long passes suggests Guardiola is already experimenting with more direct approaches to counterbalance these vulnerabilities.
Guardiola’s Tactical Evolution: A New Approach for the Future?
Despite these struggles, Guardiola has begun making adjustments to counter modern football’s tactical evolution. His recent tactical tweaks indicate an attempt to embrace more direct attacking patterns while maintaining elements of his possession-based philosophy.
New signings like Omar Marmoush and Nico Gonzalez have been crucial to this adaptation. In City’s recent 4-0 win over Newcastle, Guardiola deployed two in-behind runners—Marmoush and Erling Haaland—indicating a shift toward exploiting space with longer passes. Ederson’s role has also evolved, with City completing 39 long passes in that match—one of their highest figures of the season.
Gonzalez, dubbed “a mini-Rodri” by Guardiola, has helped restore some midfield control, while Marmoush has added unpredictability to City’s attack. However, further refinements are necessary, particularly in wide areas where City’s wingers have been less effective. The decline of Kyle Walker and Rico Lewis’s struggles at right-back have also contributed to City’s defensive frailties.
If Guardiola successfully integrates these tactical changes, City may find a new balance between controlled possession and rapid transitions. However, failure to evolve could mark the end of an era, as the relentless pace of modern football continues to challenge Guardiola’s once-dominant philosophy.
Conclusion: Can Guardiola Adapt or Is This the End of an Era?
Manchester City’s struggles this season are not merely a result of injuries or individual dips in form—they reflect a deeper tactical crisis. The rise of fast, direct football has challenged Guardiola’s control-based approach, exposing City’s vulnerabilities in transition and pressing. While Guardiola has started to adapt, significant tactical overhauls are required to keep pace with modern football’s evolution.
The coming months will be a defining period for Guardiola and Manchester City. Will they successfully modernize their tactics and reassert dominance, or has the Pepification of football reached its inevitable decline? The answer will determine whether City’s tactical revolution continues or if a new footballing order takes hold.
